Skip to Content
Streetsblog USA home
Streetsblog USA home
Log In
Ohio

Warning Signs From Columbus About America’s Big Suburban Housing Glut

The Columbus, Ohio region could support the construction of more than 1 billion square feet of commercial development on existing parking lots alone, a recent study found. Image: Richard Webner via Streetsblog
The Columbus, Ohio, region could support the construction of more than a billion square feet of mixed-use development on existing parking lots and commercial sites -- but only if planners get their act together, says researcher Arthur C. Nelson. Photo: Richard Webner
The Columbus, Ohio region could support the construction of more than 1 billion square feet of commercial development on existing parking lots alone, a recent study found. Image: Richard Webner via Streetsblog

Columbus, Ohio, is a convenient microcosm of the United States as a whole.

Demographically, Columbus closely resembles America. That's one reason the city ends up being a battleground for presidential candidates every four years, and why fast food chains like to test new menu items there.

Because Columbus is so, well, typical, the city also has a lot to teach us about where the average American city is headed. Esteemed urban affairs researcher Arthur C. Nelson recently took a look at Columbus as part of a report for the Natural Resources Defense Council, and he found that the city is on course for "sweeping demographic changes" that could transform the local housing market.

The demand for single-family housing on large lots is expected to plummet, leaving the region with an oversupply. Image: NRDC
The demand for single-family housing on large lots is expected to plummet in the Columbus region, while demand for more compact dwellings is expected to swell. Image: NRDC
The demand for single-family housing on large lots is expected to plummet, leaving the region with an oversupply. Image: NRDC

Columbus is growing at nearly the same rate as America as a whole. By 2040, the region will have added roughly half a million people, bringing its population to about 2.2 million.

But those new households will look a lot different than today's, and that will have huge implications for the local housing market. New households will be older and much more likely to be childless than current households.

Between 1990 and 2012, for example, about 78 percent of population growth in the Columbus area was among households headed by people between 35 and 64 years old. That stage of life is the period of “peak housing demand,” when homeowners favor detached houses on large lots. But by 2030, that age group will make up just 22 percent of population growth -- while homeowners over 65 will make up 56 percent of new households. Many of these older homeowners will want multi-family housing or single-family homes on small lots, according to Nelson.

It turns out that Columbus's current housing stock is woefully mismatched to future needs. By 2040, as much as 40 percent of the demand for housing could be for attached, multi-family units, and another 30 percent will be for single-family homes on small lots, Nelson estimates.

In the Columbus area over the past few decades the majority of households were baby boomers raising children. In the coming decades, the older population will swell and the households with children that demand large houses on large lots will recede. Image: NRDC
In the coming decades, the Columbus area's older population will increase and there will be less growth among households with children. Image: NRDC
In the Columbus area over the past few decades the majority of households were baby boomers raising children. In the coming decades, the older population will swell and the households with children that demand large houses on large lots will recede. Image: NRDC

"Even if all new residential units built to 2040 were attached and small lots, there would be up to 75,000 more homes on all other lots than the market may demand," Nelson said.

According to Nelson, nonresidential real estate will undergo a similar sea change, with 300 million square feet of growth by 2040 and an additional 750 million square feet that will be "repurposed, redeveloped, and otherwise recycled." Nelson calls that figure "nothing less than staggering." Nevertheless, because of increased demand for mixed-use development and the extent of under-used parcels in the area, he told NRDC Switchboard that technically, "all new jobs and all new multifamily housing could occur on existing parking lots.”

Unfortunately, planning in the Columbus region suffers from what Nelson calls a "baby boom time warp."

"For the past half-century, housing demand in the Columbus MSA was driven by baby boomers’ parents who wanted to raise their children in suburban, single-family, detached homes on larger lots, and then by boomers themselves as they became parents," he writes.

In order to be prepared for the changes expected in the next 30 years, Nelson recommends that Columbus "rethink its transportation investments" and "invest in a modern regional transit system." Columbus is the largest city in the country without any passenger rail whatsoever -- urban transit or inter-city. Nelson also recommends that the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission use some of its planning money to encourage local jurisdictions to conduct land use planning.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog USA

Hasta La Vista, Friday’s Headlines

Will the Gateway Project be back? Or will anyone taking a train have to get to da choppa instead?

October 17, 2025

‘Embarrassment’: Pedestrian Automatic Emergency Braking Still Flawed at Night

Relying solely on vehicle automation for pedestrian detection and collision avoidance is not advised, a new study said.

October 17, 2025

Friday Video: Enter the Bike Labyrinth

No, not the David Bowie movie — it's America's most-needed roadway safety fix.

October 17, 2025

It’s Time for the Fire Service to Join Communities in Preventing Street Trauma

First responders across the country are struggling with the trauma of witnessing constant car crashes — and joining the fight for better infrastructure that prevents these tragedies before they happen.

October 17, 2025

Thursday’s Headlines Can’t Afford a Car

High car prices (and loan default rates) are a sign of a K-shaped economy where the wealthy thrive and the lower classes struggle, CNBC reports.

October 16, 2025

In the Era of Mass Deportations, Traffic Reform is More Important Than Ever

"We have tried criminalizing our way out of systemic problems before; it has not worked, and it has harmed the very communities we claim to support."

October 16, 2025
See all posts