A second Trump administration will spell disaster for the boom-and-bust bike industry as importers and domestic manufacturers have to deal with more import tariffs, making it more difficult for the industry to help create viable alternatives to cars, advocates say.
Currently, about 97 percent of bike parts come from overseas, mostly from Trump’s least-favored nation, China. During his first term, Trump proposed an additional 25-percent tariff on e-bikes and other bicycle parts from the People's Republic — on top of an 11-percent tariff that was previously imposed on imported bikes — but it never took effect.
But with Trump calling for more tariffs, costs will rise for all manner of two-wheelers, including electric bikes, which experienced a sales boom when they were first introduced.
“[Tariffs are] quite a heavy lift for manufacturers and is reflective in the prices for consumers as well,” said Matt Moore, general and policy council for People for Bikes.
“The number of bikes and e-bikes being imported seems to have fallen, especially in the last year or two, but the price of those [products] has increased so that works its way through to consumers,” Moore said. “If bikes and e-bikes are too expensive, consumers won't be able to buy them.”
Creating more hurdles for bike consumers does not help the country reach its climate goals. Biking may not be the only solution to mitigate climate change, but it’s part of a larger suite of options to help get butts out of cars and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If just half of the car trips under one mile were replaced by bikes or walking, the US could save about $575 million in fuel costs and about 2 million metric tons of CO2 emissions per year, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
President-elect Trump has been very clear that he will rely bigly on tariffs on China. At one point during his campaign, he promised to impose a 20-percent tariff on all imported goods, and nearly 60-percent tariff on goods imported from China.
In 2018, during his first term as president, Trump's administration announced it would impose more than $200 billion in tariffs on products from China. At the time, People for Bikes stated that would end up being a $250-million tax hike for the bike industry. Some of those tariffs did, indeed, take effect.
Whether the administration will continue to push for 60-percent tariff is unclear, but with Republicans controlling the House, Senate, and the White House, the pathway to getting enough votes to move his plan forward is a lot easier.
And more tariffs make it harder for people to afford bikes, Moore said. But some people are hoping the solution to rising tariffs and a fluctuating bike industry is to bring more manufacturing back to the states.
Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) introduced the Domestic Bicycle Production Act, to the House Ways and Means Committee in June. The bill would suspend tariffs for 10 years on bike parts, including things like electric motors, frames, wheel rims, hubs, brakes, pedals, and gears, but it would balance that by providing tax credits for companies that manufacture bikes in the US and providing low interest 12-year loans for business to purchase the proper equipment to build manufacturing facilities here at home.
The bill, which People for Bikes helped draft, still has to pass through Congress. But, it's one of the ways advocates hope to balance protecting domestic manufacturing while keeping bikes affordable for consumers. But it won't be easy.
“We understand budget decisions are going to be difficult for Congress, so we're focused really on, can we eliminate duties for components as a start?” Moore said.
Meanwhile, Bikes for People is pushing for a number of things to keep bikes front of mind for Americans. One of those things is pushing for Congress to reinstate the Generalized Systems Preferences, a US trade program that would block tariffs on goods produced in developing economies in places like Cambodia, Thailand, and Africa, according to Moore. The program expired at the end of 2020, and Congress has yet to reauthorize it.
With the Republicans in charge, the Blumenauer bill doesn’t stand much of a chance.
