Skip to Content
Streetsblog USA home
Log In
Streetsblog.net

Dallas Transport Agency Cooks Up Fishy Traffic Projections for a New Road

10:38 AM EDT on October 16, 2014

We've reported on the way state agencies justify spending on expensive road expansions by overestimating the traffic that will materialize in the future. In an encouraging sign, one local press outfit is calling out the fishy traffic projections before a project gets built.

Image: Northeastgateway.com
The regional transportation agency for Dallas justifies this highway project with traffic projections that far exceed even the estimates from the notorious sprawl enablers at Texas DOT. Map: Northeastgateway.com

Brandon Formby of the Dallas Morning News' Transportation Blog (yes, it's a long-time member of the Streetsblog Network) has been taking a critical look at traffic projections from the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the Big D's regional planning agency. Residents who oppose the 28-mile Northeast Gateway-Blackland Prairie toll road -- planned for a rural area between Garland and Greenville -- question the assumptions behind the project.

The numbers certainly do look suspicious. Here are some excerpts from Formby's reporting (emphasis added):

    • "Some of the council of governments predictions are hundreds of percentage points higher than the Texas Department of Transportation’s forecasts."
    • "NCTCOG predicts that 72,300 drivers will use State Highway 66 at County Road 6 in Lavon in 2035. That’s six times as many as the 12,000 drivers the agency says used it last year. It’s also more than triple the 22,880 drivers TxDOT estimates for the same spot in 2030, the closest year to the NCTCOG estimates for which the state has forecasts."
    • "While the regional agency’s traffic estimates for spots in the corridor predict anywhere from a 70 percent to 503 percent increase in drivers, the state predicts population increases in the four counties to be between 23.3 percent and 65.1 percent."

Formby reports that NCTCOG has been reluctant to divulge how its traffic projections were developed. No wonder, because they seem to be practicing highway voodoo.

Elsewhere on the Network today: Systemic Failure, responding to an absurd case of police overreach in San Francisco, points out that  places where it's safe for children to be on bikes don't require them to wear helmets. And Delaware Bikes outlines data from Active Living Research that shows the many health benefits of biking and walking for transportation.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog USA

Monday’s Headlines Are All About Pete

From trying to avert a government shutdown to promoting rail safety, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in the midst of a busy week.

September 25, 2023

What is the Life of a Dead Pedestrian Worth?

A Seattle police officer sparked outrage when he joked that the death of pedestrian Jaahnavi Kandula might be settled for as little as $11,000. Some families get even less.

September 25, 2023

Why Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled Matters

“Our job now is to prioritize solutions that mitigate the impacts of climate change while equitably improving quality of life. To do so we need to rethink how we build so Californians can drive less."

September 22, 2023

Friday’s Headlines Are Tired Out

Whether it's from degradation or the dust resulting from wear and tear, it's becoming increasingly clear that tire and brake emissions are harmful, perhaps even exceeding tailpipe emissions.

September 22, 2023

Study: What Road Diets Mean For Older Drivers

"After a road diet, all motorists seem to drive at a rate that feels comfortable to a mildly-impaired older adult."

September 22, 2023
See all posts