Yonah Freemark of the Urban Institute is back again for Part II of our annual discussion.
This week we make predictions! We look at what we predicted last year and what might happen in 2025. Find out who predicted congestion pricing would get pushed back and who figured out that Indianapolis would be able to keep building new bus rapid transit lines.
Scroll down below the audio player for an edited excerpt of our conversation, or click here for an unedited, AI-generated transcript of the entire conversation.
Yonah Freemark: Okay. My wild thing is that the Detroit region will finally come together with an actual regional transit plan and the funding to create a great network of transit service that serves not only Wayne County, but also the surrounding counties.
Jeff Wood: Wow.
Yonah Freemark: Excellent, frequent bus service.
Jeff Wood: Okay. That is fantastical, but it is also excellent. What makes you think that? There must be a sliver of idea there.
Yonah Freemark: I think that Michigan has this progressive streak in it right now. The legislature has Republicans in control, but I don't know, I think that there is an interest in improving the state. I think that the governor has been pretty dynamic and, I don't know, I'm pretty sure that folks there are aware of the fact that they can't just continue the status quo with the way things are going. I don't know. I'm enthusiastic about them thinking about a different type of future.
Jeff Wood: I think that's true. But also I think that it's really interesting to watch what's been happening in Detroit lately and in Southeast Michigan, mostly because of the idea of the narrative taking hold for so many decades that it was a loser county, it was a loser city. The people were leaving, in terms of population loss. Nobody there is a loser, but it was a story that was told over and over again. And then the census said, "You guys got some population gain," and everybody's like, "What? We gained population?" And so the story flips and the narrative flips and everybody's excited about Detroit again.
I think that's just wonderful. And I think the idea of the Rust Belt, the term itself, some people who have been there a long time, see it as negative, but others, the new folks are like, "Hey, this is what we are. Screw you if you don't like it. We're the Rust Belt and we like it." And so I think that narrative change and that attitude change is really necessary and really exciting at the same time.
Yonah Freemark: Yeah. The administration can do all it wants to deny climate change, but here's the reality. Places in the South and West are going to get increasingly hot. They're going to suffer from increasing numbers of disasters. The Great Lake States have a lot of potential. Their climate is better. A lot of water. They have fewer disasters. These are places that should grow into the future. So I'm bullish about the future of these places.
Jeff Wood: Yeah. And realistically, as we found out in Appalachia in North Carolina, there are no real climate havens necessarily, but there are places that are better than others to a certain extent. I think that's true of a lot of these Midwestern cities. They might see a population gain because of whatever happens in the Southern states. We don't know what's going to happen with Florida. The governor is talking about getting rid of property taxes altogether, and they're already having an insurance crisis as it is. And housing prices are leveling out and maybe going south because people can't get insurance because of the climate crisis.
We're going to see a real mess happen and it might be another migration north, which might be interesting. It might be a new era.
Yonah Freemark: Yeah. So the question is, can we build, can we build housing?
Jeff Wood: Can you do it fast enough?
Yonah Freemark: Give people the chance to stay in Northern cities and enjoy their lives there.
