Skip to Content
Streetsblog USA home
Log In
Car Dependence

What Will Our Future Be Like If We Don’t Change How We Get Around?

12:57 PM EST on December 5, 2013

What will transportation be like in 2030? It depends a lot on what policies we institute, a RAND report finds. Image: ##http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246.html## RAND##
What will transportation be like in 2030? It depends a lot on what policies we institute, a RAND report finds. Image: ##http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246.html##RAND##

How will Americans get around in the year 2030? A recent report from the RAND Corporation lays out two "plausible futures" developed though a "scenario analysis" and vetted by outside experts. While RAND takes a decidedly agnostic stance toward the implications of each scenario, the choice that emerges is still pretty stark.

In the first scenario, oil prices continue to climb until 2030 and greenhouse gas emissions are tightly regulated, as a result of the recognition of the harm caused by global warming. Zoning laws have been reformed to promote walkable urban and suburban communities. Transit use has increased substantially. Road pricing is widely used to limit congestion and generate revenue for transportation projects. Vehicle efficiency standards have been tightened, and most drivers use electric vehicles. This is the scenario researchers at RAND call, rather dourly, "No Free Lunch."

In the second scenario, “Fueled and Freewheeling,” oil prices are relatively low in 2030 due to increasingly advanced extraction methods. Americans' relationship to energy is much like it was in the 1980s and 1990s. We'll own more vehicles overall and drive more miles. Suburbanization will continue. Roads are in bad shape because no revenues are raised to repair them. Congestion is worse. This scenario represents the future if little action is taken to counter the effects of global warming.

The difference between the two scenarios boils down to three factors: oil prices, level of regulation, and highway revenues and expenditures. While we might not have a great deal of control over oil prices, the other two, RAND points out, fall within the range of public policy. So in that sense either future is plausible.

In both cases the economy is healthy, though RAND thinks that in the "No Free Lunch" scenario, the U.S. economy grows about 2 percent annually, compared to 2.5 percent in the scenario with terrible congestion on crumbling roads and, presumably, catastrophic climate change on the horizon. RAND forecasts that in neither scenario will intercity rail travel represent an appreciable portion of total travel, nor will self-driving cars be a major share of vehicles.

A few aspects of the report are odd. In the scenario where America does something about climate change, "greater densities" are for some reason attributed to "new zoning restrictions," not the loosening of pervasive zoning rules that compel sprawling, single-use development with tons of parking. And RAND didn't analyze health and safety effects in its scenarios. Even though it must be a safe bet to predict that in a future where Americans are driving less and walking and taking transit more, thousands fewer lives would be lost in traffic each year, and people would be living longer thanks to the additional physical activity in their daily routines.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog USA

Tuesday’s Headlines Are Trending Down

An estimated 19,515 people died in car crashes during the first half of 2023, which is down 3.3 percent but still 19,515 too many.

October 3, 2023

What Do ‘Livable’ Streets Look Like in an Era of Driverless Cars?

Does a world of autonomous cars really have to make our streets less human? Possibly.

October 3, 2023

Why Chicago Advocates Are Providing Bikes to Migrants

Unless funds are freed up from a larger entity, bike distribution to asylum seekers is going to stay in crisis mode indefinitely.

October 2, 2023

Monday’s Headlines Are Open for Business

Monday will be just another Monday for federal employees, as Congress avoided a government shutdown. Plus, declining gas tax revenue provides an opportunity to rethink transportation funding.

October 2, 2023

Why Connecticut is Investing in New Regional Rail

Gov. Ned Lamont will spend $315 million investment on new rail cars — but they're not going anywhere near Grand Central. Here's why.

October 2, 2023
See all posts