Separating Myth from Fact on “Cash for Clunkers”

As debate rages on in the capital over whether to keep assisting the auto industry by giving out more "cash for clunkers" rebates, two assertions are becoming commonplace: the program is helping diminish U.S. oil consumption, and the program is not paid for with new money.

ap_gma_cash_clunkers_090731_mn.jpg(Photo: AP)

The first argument was reiterated on Friday by President Obama, who said of the "clunkers" auto trade-in discounts: "This gives consumers a break, reduces dangerous
carbon pollution and our dependence on foreign oil, and strengthens the
American auto industry."

That same day, however, energy analysts were crunching the numbers for Reuters. Even if $2 billion in new "clunker" rebates were offered, they found, the total resulting decline in America’s daily oil consumption would be 0.05 percent:

"It has proved to be a highly successful vehicle marketing tool," said
Tim Evans, energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
"But you would need a microscope to see the demand impact for gasoline
from this program because it involves a relatively small number of
vehicles."

The Reuters estimate assumes an average upgrade in fuel efficiency of 10 miles per gallon, which is in line with initial auto industry statistics on new trade-ins.

The analysis also assumes 250,000 trade-ins, which the government estimates is roughly the number that took place during the first $1 billion week of the taxpayer-subsidized "clunkers" program. Given the likelihood of new funding for the rebates, however, that 0.05 percent number could double or triple — for a total daily oil-consumption reduction of 0.15 percent.

The second argument, that offering $2 billion in extra "clunkers" cash would not amount to deficit spending, stems from Democratic leaders’ decision to shift the funds over from a Department of Energy (DoE) loan guarantee program.

That strategy was designed to appeal to fiscal hawks who would have a difficult time voting to add to the already trillion-dollar federal deficit. Indeed. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) already put her leaders on notice (via Twitter) that she could only vote yes on "clunkers" if no new money was spent.

But the DoE loans in question were approved to encourage the development of alternative energy and biofuels, two "green job" creators that have influential allies on Capitol Hill. Senate Energy Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) is already criticizing the shift as a raid on the clean-energy pot, and Renewable Fuels Association chief Bob Dineen said he wants Congress to promptly put the $2 billion back home at the DoE:

The ethanol industry understands the trying economic times this country
finds itself in and thus supports ideas like the "cash for clunkers”
program, but is concerned to see the program paid for by depleting the
renewable energy loan guarantee program. We hope Congress will move
quickly to replenish the fund. One of the advantages of the “cash for clunkers” program is putting more fuel efficient cars on the road,
however those new cars should also be running on renewable fuels like
ethanol in order to benefit both the changing climate and the domestic
economy. For the U.S. long term auto and fuel needs, it seems
counterproductive to limit the renewable fuels industry.

Given the political pressure already being exerted, it’s difficult to see how congressional leaders can avoid spending a new $2 billion to keep the auto rebates alive. Replenishing the DoE fund would take place in a separate vote later this year, however, making it easier for lawmakers to claim they’re not adding to the deficit with this week’s "clunkers" vote.

  • Ronaldo

    Bob Dineen, head of the Renewable Fuels Association, has got to be the king of special interests, the chief rent-seeker in America. He will do and say anything to make sure the money keeps flowing to ethanol producers.

  • Willi

    Too bad this is only helping all the people that bought expensive cars and can afford new cars. The people that did the right thing 15-20 years ago are penalized because their cars are old and the web site says their cars do 18 miles or more. Well the cars are OLD and do not handle like when they were new. So they cannot buy a car under the ‘cash For clunkers’ program.

  • Nick

    If, as it seems from the post, the DoE program is about ethanol, I wouldn’t be too worried. I don’t know the specifics, but at this point in time it’s likely to be about corn ethanol, and that’s not going to be helping CO2 emissions.

    Then again, in terms of reliance on foreign oil taking the money away from ethanol could cancel out the gains of the clunkers program.

    ..and since trading in old cars for new ones often releases more CO2 than keeping the old ones running, the clunkers program won’t help CO2 emissions either.

    Wow, so it really is hard to make the claim that the program will help anyone but the auto industry.

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