Census Breaks the News We Already Knew: The Exurbs Are History

Source: ##http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0406_census_exurbs_frey.aspx##William Frey, Brookings Institution##

Last week, the New York Times and USA Today reported that Census numbers had confirmed the death of the outer ring suburbs, or exurbs. The latest numbers, capturing the year (actually 15 months, April 2010 to July 2011) since the last Census, showed a major shift away from the settlement patterns from 2000 to 2010.

That’s not exactly how it happened. The shift didn’t suddenly happen in 2010. The 2000-2010 numbers encompass a decade whose first two-thirds were the heyday of an economic boom that buoyed greenfield development. The real break was in 2007, when the housing bubble burst and the artificially inflated value of the outer suburbs crashed. After all, those houses weren’t near any employment centers or amenities, and the price of gas was creeping terrifyingly upward, forcing exurbanites to pay top dollar to get to work, if they still had a job to go to.

The whole last third of the decade showed a populace flinching back from what was quickly proving itself to be a toxic development pattern. Last year’s numbers are a continuation of what’s been happening since 2007, not a sudden year-over-year change.

What has emerged from the analysis of this year’s Census data, though, is a complicated picture of stalled-out growth in distant suburbs that had developed at a breakneck pace during the housing boom, fueled by overzealous marketing and easy mortgages. Cities have re-absorbed some of those people, but the biggest metros chalked up only modest population increases. And the cities that grew the most were relatively sprawling southern and western cities, like Dallas and Miami, that defy the urbanism of old eastern cities like Boston or Philadelphia.

Fleeing the Exurbs

The Census Bureau itself didn’t actually say anything about exurbs. It focused on the dramatic shift in development patterns over the last decade, highlighting in its press release that the fastest growing areas between 2000 and 2010 were not the same ones that grew the fastest from 2010 to 2011.

So where are the Times and USA Today getting this “exurbs are dying” thing? They’re getting it from William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. He’s been talking about the flagging energy for exurban growth for years, most recently in a report released two weeks ago on the population shift away from outer suburbs and toward metros with diversified, knowledge-based economies.

A foreclosed home in Kendall County, Illinois, a poster child of exurban growth. Photo: ##http://foreclosureresourceplace.com/foreclosure-oswego-il/##Foreclosure Resource Place##

Frey’s own analysis looked past which metro areas won or lost in the last year to the finer-grained county data. The Census noted, “The three fastest-growing counties from 2000 to 2010 were Kendall, Ill.; Pinal, Ariz.; and Flagler, Fla. Between 2010 and 2011, they ranked 236th, 171st and 207th, respectively.” And Frey’s analysis showed that it wasn’t just those flagship exurban communities that were losing favor.

Frey found that population in the country’s outer suburbs grew at just 0.4 percent in the year that ended last July, down from 1 percent in the previous year and a 2006 peak of more than 2 percent.

Rural counties last year grew at one-quarter of their rate of growth between 2000 and 2010, but some grew by leaps and bounds. North Dakota, one of the most rural states in the nation, experienced some of the greatest growth in the last year due to major oil and gas development.

Forty-seven micro areas now have populations of 100,000 or more, with the most populous, Seaford, Delaware, now housing 200,000 residents. Considering that a micropolitan area is defined by having no more than 50,000 people in its largest city, a micro area that big is inherently sprawling.

What About the Major Metros?

After the newspapers had already run headlines using his findings, Frey released his own analysis on the Brookings blog. He noted that it’s not as simple as saying that big cities grew while exurbs flailed. Many cities, like Las Vegas and Orlando, experienced a major crash in population and housing values as well. And some of last year’s fastest growers, by percent population gain, were hardly the country’s most booming urban centers: Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Washington and Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Georgia, for example.

A diversified, knowledge-based economy is one key element of the cities that have fared well, Frey said. Houston, New York and D.C. gained more than 100,000 people each.

Yonah Freemark of The Transport Politic drew out some of the finer points in his story yesterday, focusing on growth in the core counties of some of the most important metro areas. “Whereas just 3.8 percent of the Washington region’s population growth between 2000 and 2010 occurred in the District of Columbia itself, 13.4 percent of the same region’s growth between 2010 and 2010 occurred in the central city,” wrote Freemark. “Most extreme, perhaps, was the situation in Cook County (the central county for the Chicago region), which took in 51.3 percent of the region’s population growth between 2010 and 2011, while the county had declined significantly in population between 2000 and 2010.”

Freemark added that the core of the core – the downtowns – were already experiencing a renaissance in the 2000s, and this new data shows that that growth is spreading to other neighborhoods within the most urban county. Of course, in some cases, county boundaries match up precisely with city limits (New York City or New Orleans, for example), and in others (Miami, Atlanta, Cleveland) the city population is a small percentage of the population of the entire county. And he was careful to note that growth in the core county only outpaced growth in surrounding areas about half the time.

Delayed Reaction

Another factor complicating this demographic data is the fact that people move less during periods of economic uncertainty. And if they move, it might not be to their ideal location. We can’t assume that the migration patterns we’re seeing in the latest Census data reflect people’s preferences.

“The reason you see so much clustering of people in these close-in suburbs and urban areas is that a lot of these are young people – you might call them windfall stayers,” Frey told Streetsblog in an interview. “They would have moved out if they could, but for the meantime they’re staying where they are, with parents or friends. In Washington, D.C., for example, you see somewhat higher growth than normal in Arlington, Alexandria and the close-in suburbs than earlier in the decade, when people were moving out to the exurbs more.”

He said that young people who seek out outer suburbs for the lower housing prices, especially those starting families, are “biding their time while they’re waiting to make the move.” So when the economy bounces back a little more, there might be a lot of latent demand for those exurbs.

But, Frey said, when these people do find the means to make their move, they might think twice about going back to subdivisions that are still struggling with massive waves of foreclosures. “The exurbs may be a little toxic for a while,” Frey said, “both for people who want to move there, people who want to provide loans for people who want to move there, and people who want to develop there.”

  • Anxiously Awaiting Bike Share

    Would be nice to see that exurb growth rate go negative.

  • Anonymous

    As the plot clearly shows, the exurbs are still growing, only more slowly. So all this talk about the death of the exurbs is an exaggeration. You might say they are less popular but not less populous.

    Call me when the growth rate becomes significantly negative. It looks like we are heading in that direction, but predictions are notoriously difficult, especially about the future.

  • Ralph

    As the population continues to age, and newer generations increasingly decline to drive, the exurb growth should go negative and stay there.  Might take a decade or two. 

  • fj

    the same for cars can’t come soon enough

  • The Truth

    It’s really premature to declare exurbs dead.

    During this period, the only segment that actually had a period of shrinkage was the city.  Moreover, the lower rate for exurbs tracks closely with the housing market meltdown. 

    If you assume that the percentage of exurban housing stock that is new is very high, and therefore might be more likely to be affected by foreclosures, the change in the trendline might be rather temporary.

    I think there are some trends that will make urban neighborhoods more attractive in the decades that come, but I don’t think we’re at a point yet to start declaring victory.

  • You know, for a short while, I had been entertaining the possibility of moving out of my urban neighborhood to a college town in what could be called the exurbs of my major metro area for a career change and proximity to family. Then I spent the weekend there riding my bike around. The town has some bike infrastructure, but the adjacent communities do not. And once you get out of the downtown district, the speed limits on the streets zoom up to 40 and 45 mph for cars – not very hospitable for a cyclist riding on the right hand side of the street. I think I have changed my mind. I don’t know how I am going to swing it if I need a bit more space for kids, but I am extra determined now to stay in the city.

  • calwatch

    Exurbs will probably return to the position they were before housing prices shot through the roof – as self sustained communities dependent on local industry. Many of them, like Manassas VA, Martinsburg WV, Jackson CA, etc. have good bones and walkable downtowns, unfortunately swamped by the big box stores. As big boxes become less sustainable in those outer areas and shut down, it provides an opportunity for the smaller community retailers to reassert themselves. Unfortunately what is likely to happen before this is the ghettoization of exurbs as places where people with housing vouchers and welfare checks congregate. You see this in places like Lancaster, CA which is far from the LA basin and where underwater homeowners rent out to Section 8 while they move in with relatives closer to their jobs in the LA basin. Absentee landlords and subprime renters send the neighborhood into a toilet that it will never recover, unless $2.50 gas is sustained for more than three years (not going to happen).

  • Thomas

    City centers are still shrinking, and the exurbs are not (yet, anyway).

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t a little silly to obsess about whether census numbers portray a changing “preference,” when policies and incentives put such a big thumb on the scale in favor of sprawl? On the other hand, Brookings, Christopher Leinberger, and even ULI have been making a pretty persuasive case that those who are actually able to choose to buy or rent a different home are more and more choosing urban and walkable. So good planning would entail working to shift those policy incentives.

  • roque guinart

    seems a little premature to declare exurbs dead. they still seem to be booming in Dallas-Ft Worth and Houston, for example. they are growing at much faster the rate than incorporated and central cities…
    http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/census-2010/ 

  • Anonymous

    There are lies damn lies and statistics: Disraeli…..

    a 2% drop in “ex-burb” population over a 10 year period? One needs not struggle to recall the state of the economy over the past 5 years. Mom’s couch is usually located in an inner-ring suburb or city center.

    is someone selling major urban centers as their ultimate goal?

  • Buddha on a Bike

    As a 25 year old, I can say anecdotally that I think there is a real change in desire. Young people are far less interested in owning a home (I wonder why), and far more interested in living a sustainable, car-free life in urban centers. In San Francisco, proximity to good public transit sky rockets rental prices. I moved into the City from the suburbs and I’m here to stay. Most of my friends would if they could, but unemployment is keeping them from city centers. I think this generation is seeing the real draw-backs to sprawl, and this will be a continuing trend.

  • Michael D.Willis

    One definition of a McMansion:
    A 3 car garage with attached bedrooms.

  • Michael D. Willis

    S.U.V. = Sucks Unlimited Volumnes

  • Michael D. Willis

    Another definition of S.U.V. – W.M.C. = Weapon of Mass Consumption…

  • Michael D.Willis

    A sneak preview of an upcoming Chrysler TV AD:

    “Imported From Detroit”…’MAD-CAR-DISEASE’ & NATIONAL OBESITY!!!

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